Tom Keeble

Research Fellow in natural hazards and biophysical modelling.
PhD Candidate in palaeofire modelling.
Based in Narrm (Melbourne), Australia.

Email / Website / LinkedIn / GitHub

👩🏼‍💻 Experience

Research Fellow - Natural Hazards & Forest Biophysical Modeller @ Forest Hydrology Research Group (Feb 2023 - Present)
Research and development of biophysical models for hydrology, geomorphology and wildfire risk in forested landscapes.

• Oversaw use and development of a spatio-temporal fuel moisture content prediction machine learning model.
  • Publication.
• Managed the HydroFire phase 4 project from initiation to delivery, ensuring stakeholder engagement and funder satisfaction.
  • Developed a post-fire flash flood model and a post-fire water quality risk model bundled as software for use by land managers and related agencies for planning purposes and rapid risk assessment.
  • Built conceptual framework and model architecture for said models and provided consultation regarding their backend development and implementation within government systems.
  • Developed supporting R package (ARRtools) containing tools for implementing Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR) hydrology assessment methods.
• Developed a model of wind speed reduction in forests that is able to be parameterised globally using spaceborne LiDAR
  • Publication.
• Provided technical modelling and data analysis support across various projects spanning post-fire erosion mitigation to coloured water generation within forest ecosystems.
• Technologies used: R, Python, ArcGIS, QGIS.
  
  

Research Assistant @ Forest Hydrology Research Group (March 2022 - Feb 2023)
Research support and project implementation in the area of post-fire hydrogeomorphic risk.

• Implemented the HydroFire phase 3 project through milestone delivery to completion.
  • Developed a post-fire debris flow runout model for use across the state of Victoria, Australia and produced a statewide spatial dataset of runout risk areas to better facilitate risk assessments (Publication).
  • Rectified extensive errors in historic geoprocessing methods and output datasets.
    
• Technologies used: R, Python, QGIS, ArcGIS.
  
  

Forest Ecologist @ S & L Forestry (Aug 2021 - Oct 2022)
Responsible for planning and delivery of flora surveys in remote, pre-harvest forest areas as part of large-scale contract works, whilst ensuring works occur safely and in compliance with the relevant legislation, including WHS&E.

• Conducted intensive surveys for critically threatened species, assessed and characterised forest areas and individual trees for habitat use and value, and evaluated growth stages to define old growth status.
• Collected and managed geospatial survey data and implemented quality control checks to ensure its accuracy and completeness.
• Liaised and coordinated with contract manager to establish efficient operational priorities and delivery of collected data.
• Technologies used: GPS navigation, spatial survey data collection (via Esri Survey123 and FieldMaps apps).
  
  

Bushland Maintenance Officer @ City of Whittlesea (Jan 2021 - May 2021)
Responsible for the management of conservation reserves throughout the municipality for conservation and biodiversity values.

• Conducted vegetation mapping and assessment, chemical and manual weed control, planting and revegetation, habitat construction, bushfire preparedness and the delivery of an ecological burn program in compliance with relevant legislation, WHS&E, and safe operating procedures.
• Developed a vegetation type monitoring system to assess contractor weed management performance post ecological burn operations, thereby ensuring efficient and cost-effective contract delivery.
  
  

Previously worked as an Outdoor Educator from Feb 2014 - Mar 2020

• Guiding a broad range of single-day tours, through to 14-day expeditions throughout Australian National Parks and wilderness areas for various schools, including: hiking; bushwalking; canoeing; skiing; and conservation-focused trips.
• Managed logistics, safety and participant wellbeing in compliance with Adventure Activity Standard (AAS) Guidelines.
• Facilitated participant learning and development using a range of teaching tools in conjunction with the outdoor experience.
  
  

👩🏼‍🎓 Education

Doctor of Philosophy - Science
University of Melbourne - Parkville, Victoria, Australia (Jul 2024 - Present)

• Topic: Quantifying the relative contributions of human and non-human generated fire to vegetation dynamics in SE Australian palaeolandscapes.
  
• Situated within the ARC Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures (CIEHF) as a member of both the Palynology, Palaeoecology and Biogeography lab and the Forest Hydrology Research group.
  
  

Master of Ecosystem Management and Conservation
University of Melbourne - Parkville, Victoria, Australia (Feb 2020 - Jun 2021)
Weighted Average Mark (WAM): 89.6/100

• Graduate coursework spanning landscape and forest ecology, ecological restoration, soil and hydrographic processes, fire ecology and management, environmental modelling, spatial and data analysis, governance and policy, and community engagement.
  
  

Graduate Certificate of Outdoor and Environmental Education
Federation University Australia - Ballarat, Victoria, Australia (Feb 2018 - Jul 2018)
Grade Point Average (GPA): 7.0/7.0

Bachelor of Science in Geography
University of Melbourne - Parkville, Victoria, Australia (2013 - 2016)
Weighted Average Mark (WAM): 76.2/100

• Geography major with a broad mixed focus on both social and physical sciences. Coursework spanning environmental science, ecology, Indigenous studies, social theory and demography.
  
  

🏆 Accomplishments

Natural Hazards Postgraduate Research Scholarship @ Natural Hazards Research Australia (Jul 2025)
Natural Hazards Research Australia’s Postgraduate Research Scholarship program supports eligible students undertaking full-time study in a research area that aligns with the Centre’s research themes.

Rowden White Scholarship @ University of Melbourne (Sep 2024)
Rowden White Scholarships are offered based on academic merit and relevant professional experience, determining research potential of the student in their field of study.

Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship @ Australian Commonwealth Government/University of Melbourne (Jul 2024)
The Research Training Program Scholarship is supported by the Australian Commonwealth Government and the University of Melbourne, and offered to high-achieving domestic and international research students.

Dean’s Honours List 2021 - Science @ University of Melbourne - Faculty of Science (Aug 2022)
The Dean’s Honour List acknowledges outstanding academic achievement and endeavour for completed graduate students in the Faculty of Science. Awarded to the top percentage of the 2021 academic year cohort.

Walter Massy-Greene Prize 2021 @ University of Melbourne (Jul 2022)
A prize awarded to the highest placed student in the final year of the Master of Ecosystem Management and Conservation, as nominated by the head of the School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences.

John Chinner Medal 2020 @ University of Melbourne (Dec 2020)
This scholarship is awarded to the student in graduate studies in the School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences who has achieved the most outstanding performance in field studies, including field practical exercises, throughout the program.

Melbourne Global Scholars Award 2016 @ University of Melbourne (Feb 2016)

💬 Languages

English: Native

📖 Publications

Harrison, M.A., Noske, P.J., Lyell, C.S., Moon, K., Prior, D.P., Sheridan, G.J., and Keeble, T. (2025). Spaceborne LiDAR-derived height-variable forest wind reduction factors (WRF) for improved wildfire spread modelling. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 372, 110639. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110639

Keeble, T., Lyell, C.S, Lane, P., Nyman, P., Noske, P.J. and Sheridan, G. (2024). A landscape scale model to predict post-fire debris flow impact zones. Geomorphology, 455, 109175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2024.109175

Lyell, C.S., Nattala, U., Keeble, T., Vella, E.M., Joshi, R.C., Joukhadar, Z., … & Sheridan, G. (2024). Forecasting dead fuel moisture content below forest canopies–A seven-day forecasting system. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 358, 110217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110217

Joyse, K., Keeble, T., Allen, J., Nyman, P., Showers, C. and Sheridan, G. (2024). A Post-Fire Catchment Hazards Toolbox for assessing erosion and flooding risks after bushfire. Proceedings of the 11th Australian Stream Management Conference. River Basin Management Society, August 2024, Victor Harbor, South Australia. Conference paper

Keeble, T.P., Lyell, C.S and Sheridan, G. (2023). A seven-day ahead bushfire fuel moisture forecasting system integrating an automated fuel sensor network, weather forecasts and a machine learning model. In Vaze, J., Chilcott, C., Hutley, L. and Cuddy, S.M. (eds) MODSIM2023, 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, July 2023, pp. 453. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-0-0. https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.keeble